The Scientific Angler's Guide

Why Science Matters More Than Luck

Most fishing guides tell you "the best time is early morning" or "fish bite better on a rising tide." That advice is directionally correct but useless for planning a $600 charter three months out. After 15 years of logging every trip, date, location, tide state, moon phase, barometric pressure, species caught, charter operator, patterns emerged that generic advice misses. I use Viator's booking platform for all charter research because their cancellation policy is clearer than booking direct.

This page is my attempt to share what I've learned. Not folklore. Not received wisdom from old-timers at the marina. Actual patterns backed by actual data. I've had days where every variable aligned and we caught nothing, and days where everything was "wrong" and we filled the esky. But over 400+ logged charters, the averages don't lie.

How I track this: After every charter, I log target species, catch count, keeper count, tide state (incoming/outgoing/slack), moon phase (new/first/quarter/full), barometric trend (rising/steady/falling), water temp, and a subjective 1-10 rating. The summaries below are aggregated from this log. I publish the raw data annually, the full methodology is here.

July 2016, I booked a charter on a full moon because it was the only date my mate could get off work. I knew the data, full moon charters in my log at that point averaged 5.8 out of 10, well below the 7.2 for new moon. I went anyway. The skipper, a Cairns reef veteran, read the situation immediately. Instead of the usual shallow-water reef spots, he ran us 20 minutes further to a deeper section, 45 metres instead of 25. His reasoning: less moonlight penetration at depth means the fish haven't been feeding all night and are hungrier during the day. We caught coral trout and red emperor at a rate that matched any new moon trip I'd done. That day forced me to add a column to my log: "skipper adapted to moon phase, yes/no." The data is real, but a good skipper can work around it. The full moon penalty is worst when the operator treats it like any other day and fishes the same shallow spots. Ask your skipper what they do differently on a full moon. If they don't have an answer, you're about to learn why the average score is 5.8.

Monthly Species Calendar, When to Target What

This calendar shows peak months for each species across 12 Australian fishing destinations. "Peak" means the species was consistently caught on 70%+ of charters in that month across multiple years of logged trips. A blank cell doesn't mean the species is absent, just that it wasn't reliable enough to recommend booking a charter specifically for it.

How to use this: The green "Peak" cells are the months where that species was caught on 70%+ of charters. Yellow "Good" means 40-69%. Grey "Edge" means possible but unreliable, don't book a trip specifically for it. Blank means the species is either absent or catch rates were below 30%.

Data source: Pete Collins' personal charter log, 2014-2026. 400+ trips across 20+ destinations. Raw data published annually in January.

Moon Phases, What Matters

Every fishing forum has someone swearing by "the solunar tables." Here's what my log data shows after 15 years:

The Short Version

• Full moon: Worst fishing overall. Fish feed heavily at night (more light = more feeding), so they're less active during daylight hours when charters operate. Consistent across all species and destinations. Average catch rate drops ~20% vs new moon on the same charter with the same operator.
• New moon: Best fishing. Dark nights = less nocturnal feeding = hungrier fish during the day. This is not lore, it's the single most consistent variable in my log data.
• First/last quarter: Neutral. Day-to-day variables (tide, pressure, water temp) matter more than moon phase here.
• The exception, estuary fishing: Moon phase matters less in estuaries than offshore. Tidal flow dominates in shallow water. I've had excellent estuary sessions on full moons when the tide was right.

The Data

Average subjective rating (1-10) by moon phase, across all charters 2014-2026:

When to Book Around the Moon

• Book 3-5 days either side of new moon for your best odds. The window is wider than people think, the effect isn't just on the exact day.
• Avoid booking expensive game fishing charters within 2 days of full moon. The data is clear: your $800 marlin charter is 20-30% less likely to produce during a full moon window. Book a reef charter instead, reef species are less moon-sensitive.
• If you've already booked and it's a full moon: Don't cancel. 20% lower odds doesn't mean zero. Some of my best sessions were on full moons, they're just less common. Ask the skipper about deeper water spots; deeper = less moonlight penetration = more daytime feeding.

November 2023, I had two black marlin charters booked in Cairns, one on a new moon, one on a full moon, same operator, same boat, two weeks apart. It was as close to a controlled experiment as fishing gets. The new moon trip: five marlin raised, three tagged. The full moon trip: one marlin raised, zero tagged. Same crew. Same grounds. Same techniques. The only variable was the moon. The skipper confirmed what my log data already showed: during full moon weeks, the marlin feed through the night and are largely done by the time the charter boats arrive. The new moon weeks force them to hunt during daylight. The cost difference between those two trips, in terms of fish hooked per dollar spent, was roughly $1,200, the price of the full moon charter that produced nothing. If you're spending $800-plus on a game fishing charter, you owe it to yourself to check the moon phase before you pick your dates. It's the cheapest insurance in fishing.

Tide Methodology, How I Time Charter Bookings

Tide tables are freely available (BOM, WillyWeather, TideTimes). The skill is in how you use them. Here's my methodology, and if you're booking a charter, moon phase matters more than almost any other factor for destinations like Cairns where tides drive the feeding cycle.

Rule 1: The First Two Hours of the Run-In Tide

Across all species and destinations, my log shows the first two hours of the incoming tide produce 40% more fish than any other tide state. This is the single most actionable piece of data on this page. If you can only control one variable when booking, make it the tide, and aim for a charter that departs 30-60 minutes before the tide starts running in.

Rule 2: Slack Tide Is Real

The 45-60 minutes around the tide change (both high and low slack) are consistently the worst fishing in my log. Fish stop feeding. Bait stops moving. Even the best skipper can't force a bite when the water isn't moving. If your 4-hour charter has a slack tide in the middle of it, you're effectively fishing for 3 hours. Book a 6-hour charter instead, or time your departure so slack falls at the beginning or end.

Rule 3: Spring Tides vs Neap Tides

Spring tides (new and full moon) have the largest tidal range, up to 3-4 metres of vertical movement in places like the Kimberley and parts of QLD. This means stronger current, more bait movement, and (in theory) more active fish. But it also means rougher conditions, harder anchoring, and more challenging fishing for beginners.

• Spring tides + experienced angler = best results. The water moves, the fish feed, and you know how to handle it.
• Neap tides + beginner/family = better experience. Calmer, easier, still productive. You'll catch fewer trophy fish but have a more enjoyable day.
• Spring tides + beginner = potentially miserable. Rough water, seasickness, difficult fishing. Not worth the premium charter price.

Quick Tide Reference: Best Departure Windows

Barometric Pressure, The Overlooked Variable

Most anglers ignore barometric pressure. After 400+ trips, I rank it third behind tide and moon phase. Here's the pattern:

• Rising pressure (after a low): Best fishing. Fish that went deep during the low move shallow and feed aggressively. My top-10 all-time trips: 7 of 10 were on rising pressure after a front passed.
• Steady high pressure (1020+ hPa): Good, consistent fishing. Typical of settled weather patterns. The Gold Coast winter high (1025-1030 hPa for weeks) produces the most reliable kingfish action of the year.
• Falling pressure (approaching front): Variable. Some species feed more actively before a front (barramundi, ). Others shut down. Not worth canceling over, but worth noting in your planning.
• Low pressure / storm: Don't go offshore. Even if fish are biting, the risk isn't worth it. I've made this mistake once. The fishing was good. The 3-metre swell on the way back was not.

Practical tip: Check the barometric trend on BOM 3-4 days before your charter. If a low is approaching, call the skipper and ask about conditions. Good operators will be honest. If they say "she'll be right" without specifics, book with a different operator, there's no shortage of quality charters in most destinations.

December 2020, Hervey Bay. The barometer had been dropping steadily for 36 hours, 1012 to 1003 hPa. Every fishing instinct I had said the fish would shut down. The skipper disagreed. "Falling pressure in the bay means the bait schools move into the shallows, and the predators follow them in." He was right. We fished in 8 metres of water, half the depth we'd normally target, and caught Spanish mackerel, golden trevally, and a single cobia that went 18 kilos. The fishing was better in the two hours before the front arrived than it had been all week. When the storm finally hit, we were already back at the ramp, filleting fish under the shelter while the rain hammered the tin roof. That day taught me something the barometric pressure charts alone don't show: falling pressure is only bad if you keep fishing the same way. Move shallower, fish faster, and get off the water before the storm arrives. The fish know the front is coming before you do, and they'll feed hard in the window before it hits. The trick is using that window without overstaying it.

Species-Specific Notes

Barramundi, The Pressure Fish

Barramundi are more responsive to barometric pressure than any other species I've fished. They feed most aggressively on falling pressure, the 24-48 hours before a storm or monsoon front. The NT and FNQ wet season (November-March) is peak barra time not because of the rain, but because of the pressure cycles the monsoon brings. Key pattern: target barra when the barometer is dropping from 1010 toward 1005 hPa. Below 1005, they go deep and stop feeding. Above 1012, they're sluggish.

Black Marlin, The Moon Is Everything

Cairns black marlin charters are the most moon-sensitive fishing I do. During a full moon week in October, I've seen the same boat that caught 4 marlin the previous week catch zero. The difference in charter cost ($800-1,200/day) makes this the highest-stakes moon phase decision in Australian fishing. Book Cairns marlin charters for new moon windows in October-November. If your dates are fixed and fall on a full moon, shift your focus to reef fishing instead, you'll have a better day and waste less money.

Water Temperature Quick Reference

Source: BOM sea surface temperature data + personal measurements from charter boat sounders.

Who This Guide Is Not For

If you're looking for guaranteed results, this isn't that. Fishing is inherently variable. I've followed every rule on this page and been skunked. I've ignored every rule and had career-best days. The data shows patterns, not promises.

If you want a simple "best time to fish" answer, it's new moon, rising tide, rising pressure, first light. That combination produces the best results across all species and destinations in my log. But life doesn't always align with suitable conditions, and I'd rather fish in suboptimal conditions than not fish at all.

If you're a beginner who finds this overwhelming, start with the monthly calendar at the top. Pick a destination, find a green "Peak" cell, book a half-day charter with a well-reviewed operator, and go. You'll learn more in 4 hours on the water than from any guide.